Two Measures, One Ballot: This November, Los Angeles Voters Could Redraw the Mansion Tax

There is a line item on every high-end Los Angeles closing statement that nobody enjoys reading. It sits below the escrow fees, above the wire instructions, and on a $12 million sale it runs north of $650,000.

That is Measure ULA — the so-called “mansion tax” — and this November, Los Angeles voters will be handed not one but two chances to change it.

Here’s what the market is actually doing right now: sellers above the threshold are quietly recalculating, and most of them have no idea that both measures are already on the ballot.

Let me walk you through it, because the difference between closing in October and closing in February could be a seven-figure decision.

What ULA Actually Costs You Today

First, the number people get wrong.

Measure ULA, passed by city voters in 2022, is not a tax on the gain. It is a transfer tax on the entire sale price, and it applies to property inside Los Angeles city limits.

The thresholds adjust for inflation each year, and for transactions closing after June 30, 2026, they sit at $5.4 million and $10.9 million.

Sell between those two numbers and you pay 4 percent of the full price. Cross $10.9 million and the rate steps up to 5.5 percent — on the whole thing, not just the amount above the line.

Most agents won’t tell you this, but that structure is why the $5.3 million listing and the $5.6 million listing behave like two different animals.

One clears escrow clean. The other writes a check for more than $224,000 before anyone talks about commissions.

As of May 2026, the tax has collected roughly $1.2 billion in three years, money directed toward affordable housing production, rental assistance, and eviction defense.

Whatever you think of the policy, the arithmetic is not in dispute.

Measure One: The Palisades Exemption

On August 4, the Los Angeles City Council voted 13–1 to put a targeted question to voters:

Should homes damaged or destroyed by the Palisades Fire be exempt from ULA when they sell?

The proposed exemption would run until early 2030 — five years from the date of the fire — and it needs only a simple majority to pass.

The Los Angeles Housing Department estimated in a May 2026 report that the carve-out could reduce ULA revenue by as much as 6 percent, or about $32 million a year. LAist, NBC Los Angeles, and The Real Deal have all covered the proposal.

The human logic is straightforward.

A family whose home burned in January 2025 and who decides, eighteen months into an exhausting rebuild, that they would rather sell the lot than finish it, is currently looking at a 4 percent transfer tax on a sale they never planned to make.

That is a very different situation from a discretionary trophy trade elsewhere in Los Angeles.

What It Means for Palisades Owners

If you are on the fence about selling a fire-affected property, the calendar now matters enormously.

A sale that closes before the measure takes effect would receive no benefit from the proposed exemption.

I would not advise anyone to freeze. Market-timing risk is real, and buyer demand for Palisades land has been genuinely strong. But you should absolutely be running both scenarios with your accountant before you sign a listing agreement.

Measure Two: The Statewide Wrecking Ball

The second measure is far bigger, and almost nobody in my client conversations has heard of it.

A statewide initiative backed by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association — the Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Prop. 13 — has qualified for the same November ballot.

As CalMatters has reported, the measure would cap local real estate transfer taxes at the long-standing baseline state rate — a fraction of one percent — with existing higher local transfer taxes sunsetting two years after adoption. It would also raise the passage threshold for certain voter-initiated tax measures to two-thirds.

Read that again.

If it passes, ULA does not simply get trimmed. It would be wound down, with implications for other higher local transfer taxes around California as well.

The initiative also faces organized opposition from housing advocates, who point to the affordable-housing and tenant-protection programs already being funded by ULA revenue.

I am not predicting an outcome.

I am telling you that a genuine repeal scenario is now on the table for the first time since Measure ULA took effect.

How I’d Think About It If This Were My House

Do not build a listing strategy on a ballot outcome.

That is speculation, not strategy.

But do build one that accounts for it.

If you are above $10.9 million and not in a hurry, there is now a legitimate reason to have a conversation about timing. Even under a repeal scenario, however, any sunset would take time, so patience has a cost.

If you are just above $5.4 million, the more immediate lever remains where it has always been: pricing and positioning.

Because the difference between $5.35 million and $5.45 million is not simply $100,000.

It is $100,000 plus a $218,000 ULA tax bill.

And if you are a buyer, understand that ULA is a seller-side cost that has quietly shaped what sellers are willing to accept. If the tax structure changes, that negotiating dynamic changes with it.

In This Market, the Threshold Matters

I don’t just list properties. I position them.

And right now, positioning includes knowing exactly which side of a threshold — and potentially which side of an election — your sale is going to land on.

If you own a property above $5 million anywhere in the City of Los Angeles and want to see the real net numbers under all three scenarios — status quo, Palisades exemption, and statewide repeal — call me directly at (818) 561-1600 or email [email protected].

I’ll build the net sheet with you. No pressure and no pitch.

Amir Jawaherian | The Agency, Los Angeles | CA DRE# 01899893

Sources: LAist, The Real Deal, NBC Los Angeles, CalMatters, Los Angeles Office of Finance.

This article is for general informational purposes only and is not tax or legal advice. Please confirm applicable transfer-tax rates and potential tax consequences with your CPA or attorney before transacting.